Economist Dr. Daniel Anim has projected that the Ghanaian cedi will continue to appreciate until the end of the third quarter of 2025.
This comes on the back of the cedi’s persistent marginal gains against major foreign currencies in recent weeks, sparking public debate and speculation about the sustainability of the trend.
Analysts have attributed the appreciation to improved investor confidence, increased forex inflows, and restrained demand for foreign currency. The Bank of Ghana’s recent interventions in the forex market, as well as support from international partners, have also helped stabilize the local currency.
Speaking to Univers Business, Dr. Anim said the current performance of the cedi is encouraging but temporary.
According to him, the trend may reverse in the final quarter due to increased import activity
“The cedi will further appreciate up to the end of the third quarter. But by the fourth quarter, we should begin to see some depreciation,” he said.
He explained that the expected depreciation will be driven by a surge in import demand during the Christmas season, which could put pressure on Ghana’s foreign reserves.
“That’s when people import heavily for the festivities, and it affects our reserves at the Bank of Ghana,” he noted. “The good news is that the rate of depreciation will be slower than in previous years.”
Dr. Anim highlighted several factors driving the cedi’s current strength, these includes global trade tensions, Ghana’s IMF programme, the oil-for-gold policy, and recent reforms introduced by the government.
“The global trade war, the IMF factor, and the oil-for-gold initiative through the new Gold Board are all contributing. There’s also goodwill towards the government’s reforms,” he explained.
He stressed that while the appreciation is a welcome development, it is likely short-lived unless the central bank takes strategic action.
“It’s a short-term mechanism. The Bank of Ghana should beef up reserves so that when the pressure sets in, the cedi holds steady,” Dr. Anim cautioned.
Story by: Kwadwo Owusu Anane | univers.ug.edu.gh
Edited by: Cindy Selasi Humade
