Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) at the University of Ghana, Dr. Kofi Takyi Asante, has rejected claims that luck was responsible for Africa recording lower-than-expected COVID-19 infection and death rates during the pandemic.
Speaking at an ISSER Seminar presentation on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, on the research topic, “State Capacity Beyond the Nation State: ECOWAS and the African COVID-19 Anomaly,” Dr. Asante said early predictions suggested the continent would suffer severe consequences due to weak public health systems.
“The expectation was that because our health systems are very fragile, we’re going to have more infections and more deaths. But it turns out Africa was the least affected region,” he stated.
He urged analysts to move away from explanations that attribute Africa’s COVID-19 outcome to luck, a youthful population, or pre-existing immunity from other diseases.
“The explanations which have been offered for this vary from luck. Others said we have a youthful population. Some have talked about the immunity from malaria and other diseases,” he said.
Dr. Asante argued that many existing studies failed to fully explain Africa’s response because they focused mainly on individual countries rather than regional cooperation.
“COVID was a transnational virus. They didn’t respect any borders. And so I focused on what ECOWAS did, a regional approach to look at what was happening among this community of countries,” he explained.
He said West Africa’s response was strengthened by systems developed by the West African Health Organization (WAHO) after the 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak, which exposed the need for stronger epidemic preparedness.
“They built national public health institutions, regional coordinating centres for surveillance of epidemics and control measures. They trained public health and laboratory professionals. They set up public health emergency operating centres,” he noted.
According to Dr. Asante, these systems allowed the region to respond proactively when COVID-19 emerged, with measures introduced before cases were officially recorded in Africa.
“When COVID happened, their response wasn’t reactive. It was very proactive. They started putting measures in place before Africa recorded any outbreaks,” he said.
He further highlighted ECOWAS’ role in supporting member states by sharing resources and expertise, particularly countries with limited health capacity.
“It organised it so that some countries that didn’t have enough doctors, didn’t have enough technicians, would havenand some that didn’t have enough thermal cameras at the airport to detect those who have high temperature, all of those support came from ECOWAS,” he stated.
However, Dr. Asante cautioned that the sustainability of regional institutions remains threatened by dependence on external funding.
“However, resourcing is an issue. And they are receiving a bulk of their money budget from EU, not only for medical-related issues, but for education and all the other programmes they are doing,” he said.
He warned that reliance on foreign funding could affect the ability of African institutions to make independent decisions in the interest of the continent.
“Which means that if the person giving you money doesn’t want you to do this, even if that thing is for your benefit, you won’t be able to do it. So we need to wean ourselves,” he cautioned.
Dr. Asante stressed that Africa’s COVID-19 experience demonstrates that national and regional institutions have the capacity to address major challenges when properly supported.
“This particular case of COVID shows that our national institutions and regional institutions can actually respond effectively to the challenges that we face. So that capacity is there,” he emphasised.
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Story by Wilhemina Dushie | univers.ug.edu.gh
Edited by Erica Odeenyin Odoom
